At the turn of the decade (okay, so, three weeks ago), I linked a few posts covering others’ predictions for the 2020s.
One prediction from Alex Danco stood out to me: the smartphone is it.
There will be no major form-factor that supersedes the smartphone. The phone is it. If you went forward in time to 2029, you’d be surprised that the phones are more or less the same. The 2×5 inch glowing glass rectangle will remain more or less similar as our common interface with the internet and with the world. Nicer in some ways, and they’ll have some genuinely cool AR features, but other than that? We figured out the phone. It’s gonna stay put now.
I’ve since spent a lot of time thinking about this, and I’ve arrived at two reflections.
Firstly, the form of this prediction is great. It’s bold, clear, and plausible. Predictions shouldn’t be vague or limp. Danco does well.
Secondly, I think it’s wrong. Really wrong.
For the majority of human history we passed on our knowledge and culture through stories told from one generation to the next.
In the past 5,000 years, we’ve had written language. Letters and books immortalised our ideas.
Then, in the 19th Century, photography and telephony entered the scene. We could now capture an image and have it say something across cultures and generations. We could also speak to each other across vast distances.
The next century brought the first television, which changed how families consume knowledge and interact with the world.
And the 21st Century is where we’ve grown into the potential of the internet. It’s been a rapid march from instant messaging, to audio, and video. With true VR and AR on the horizon.
All this to say, the past 100 years have seen huge changes in the way we communicate and interact with each other; made possible by technology.
Danco’s prediction that the smartphone is the final destination is forgetting how much has changed even in the last 20 years.
I think there’ll be something else.
What exactly?
I don’t want to hazard a guess.