Last year I wrote a post titled ‘Predicting the 2020s’, where I collated predictions from other writers for what the 2020s would bring.
It should come as no surprise that none of them anticipated 2020.
Back then I didn’t have the courage to make my own predictions. However, given the craziness of 2020, I’ve realised predictions are just best guesses, and we shouldn’t place too much weight on any of them. Feeling more lighthearted about the matter, I’ve decided to pen down 3 predictions for 2021 and share them here.
1. The COVID-19 vaccine rollout will be swift and effective, but it will highlight and exacerbate global inequality.
I think a large percentage of the global population (40-50%) will be vaccinated by the end of 2021, but this will be heavily weighted (60-70%) in developed markets. This estimate is loosely based on Goldman Sachs’ latest forecast.
The latest Duke University data on vaccine pre-orders has wealthy nations like Canada, the US, and the UK, and the EU hedging their bets and ordering between 2-6x the required doses from the various front-running manufacturers, in the hopes that a combination of those vaccines will be enough to inoculate their entire populations. This is in stark contrast to countries like Bangladesh and El Salvador who have only ordered enough doses to cover 10-15% of their populations.
As developed nations quickly return to normal, and as poorer nations lag, I fear the health, education, corruption, and economic indicators between countries in these categories will continue to widen.
2. Travel will surge back, but testing and health passports will become the new norm.
After a year of being homebound, many families that had consistent income throughout the pandemic—and thus higher levels of savings—will return to travelling enmasse.
However, I think the above will happen in lockstep with drastic increases in testing as well as health passports. In order to travel, you’ll require a test beforehand, or you’ll be required to show proof of a valid vaccination. I think measures like this will be in place across much of the globe by mid-2021.
3. Work From… will be a grey area
The choice to Work-from-Home or Work-from-Office will never again be binary.
2020 has proven many industries and companies are capable of thriving even when their employees are working from home.
We also know that going back to the office won’t happen in one fell swoop, and that it will likely start with “a few days a week”.
A mixture of a few days in the office and a few days at home each week will likely become the new normal. Employees will come to expect it, employers will comply, and there will be a Work-from-Home grey area that persists over the coming year and decade.
Let me know if you disagree with any of the above, and if you have your own predictions.
And then, let’s see what happens!