The new COVID variant—recently discovered here in the UK—is deeply troubling. Although its mortality rate is no worse than the original strain, its rate of transmissibility is 70% higher.
A new study from Imperial College London has confirmed the R0—a virus’s reproduction number, or the number of cases directly generated by an infected person—of the new variant is between 0.4-0.7 higher than the original strain.
But what do these numbers mean in practise?
During the November 2020 UK lockdown, the R0 was 0.9, meaning on average each infected person passed the virus on to 0.9 people. This resulted in a 30% decline in new cases over a 3-week period.
However, there is a fine line between case rate decline and growth—an R0 > 1 will lead to exponential increases in transmission.
Due to the transmissibility of the new COVID variant, the UK’s R0 is now estimated at 1.1-1.3, and newly imposed lockdowns are not bringing case rates down.
This means an accelerated vaccination programme is of the utmost importance, and is why the UK has extended the gap between the first and second dose of the vaccine—from 4 weeks to 12 weeks—in an effort to provide at least some immunity to a broader segment of the population before the spring.
My reflections on the topic are rudimentary and simplistic—I’m not a scientist or close to the subject matter. But there are underlying principles here that I’ve been reflecting on.
At work and at home these “fine lines” exist. There are thresholds where small changes can compound into significant opportunities or problems over a period of time. When we realise that the world works in a non-linear way, and we anticipate it, we can better prepare ourselves to respond.