Paul Samuelson once quipped, “The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions.”
We’re typically gracious with folks who try and predict the future because they’re usually wrong.
Sometimes, however, the forecast is so wrong that it deserves to be called out; especially when it’s supposed to come from a “reputable” source.
Back in 2015, OPEC predicted that electric cars will remain irrelevant through to 2040; only accounting for 1% of new car sales.
What actually happened since? And what are the predictions now?
In 2020, electric vehicles were responsible for 4.5% of global sales. Currently, electric vehicles hold 3.5% market share, and UBS predicts electric vehicles will have 100% penetration by 2040.
In addition to being great news for our planet, it’s also a good lesson in treating all predictions with caution. The forecast you’re looking at today could be the equivalent of OPEC’s electric vehicle bet from 2015.