Although it started back in 1996, I only discovered Long Bets today, and I think the concept is awesome.
“Long Bets is a public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions, of interest to society, with philanthropic money at stake.”
Academics and thought leaders, as well as anyone on the internet, are invited to make bets on the future, with the money won being donated to charity.
What I love about it is the public nature of each bet, and how money given to a philanthropic cause adds necessary jeopardy — without money, it’s just opinions.
Here are some of my favourite bets:
By 2035 there will be at least 10 people living on Mars for a period of more than 2 months (time period: 2020 – 2035; ).
At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150 (time period: 2002-2150).
A bitcoin will be worth less than $1000US by the end of 2025 (time period: 2020-2025) – I find it hard to see this one coming true.