I met up for dinner with some good friends this week, and before the evening was over, we all had to pen down a big bet for 2022.
The idea was to pick something that we think will happen during 2022, but seems relatively unlikely right now.
Mine was that Tesla will be worth less at the end of the year than it is now at a market cap of $1.1b.
Tesla has outperformed all expectations over the past few years, and global electric vehicle sales are expected to continue climbing rapidly this year.
But in my opinion, their valuation feels disconnected from reality.
Get this, Tesla’s market cap is more than the value of the 2nd to 11th placed car companies combined, and they recently announced the need to recall more than 600,000 cars. I can’t help but feel that the market will correct itself, sooner or later.
Do you have any bold, unlikely, contrarian bets for 2022? Go on, take a punt!