I was recently recommended this fascinating paper which outlines how the practice of deliberately disagreeing with yourself can lead to better decisions.
Here are the core ideas behind the the study:
- Making good decisions relies upon our ability to make sound estimates of unknown quantities
- Typically, the aggregate estimates of a group outperform the estimate of an individual (e.g., diverse teams usually perform better than homogenous teams)
- However, the same benefit can be seen when we aggregate multiple estimates from the same person
- Here’s what the study recommends: “combine people’s first estimate with their second estimate made from the perspective of someone they often disagree with.”
So next time you’re making a decision, have a go at creating a second estimate from the perspective of someone you often disagree with. Then find the aggregate of those two estimates. It’ll likely outperform your first estimate. And for extra marks, sense check your aggregate estimate with others you trust.