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You are here: Home / Blog / The dangers of a % decline

The dangers of a % decline

Dan Cullum · May 17, 2022 ·

I’ve seen Nassim Taleb, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Paul Graham all tackle this idea in different ways over the years: a percentage increase and decrease feel similar on the surface, but are drastically different in reality.

Paul Graham framed it well recently:

“Many people implicitly assume that if a number shrinks by x%, it has to grow x% to get back to its old value. That’s not far off for small x. A number that shrinks by 10% only has to grow about 11.1%. But a number that shrinks by 75% has to grow 300%.”

The decline is immeasurably more dangerous than the increase.

Act accordingly.

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