Forecasts can lull us into a false sense of security about the future. We want to believe them because they allow us to feel like we have a degree of control—or certainty—over a situation that is often out of our hands.
However, a forecast is still a guess. It’ll likely be the best guess we have, but it’s far from certainty.
Once we get comfortable with this, we can use forecasts to guide our direction of travel, but we shouldn’t mistake it for the path.