Dan Cullum

A few of you may recall Maru and I were recently locked out of our flat, and had to call a locksmith to let us back in.

The 20 minute call-out ended up costing an eye-watering sum, but after a long-haul flight and a two week trip, we were just happy to get back into our flat.

This experience made me notice what’s called the locksmith paradox; a concept from Dan Ariely, a Psychology and Behavior Economics Professor at Duke University.

He describes that as a locksmith gets better at their job, they upset their customers because they get the job done faster.

This example gets to the heart of a mistake we’re prone to make with respect to perception of value. It’s easy to equate value with time, rather than outcomes.

If the locksmith puts in a solid hour’s work, and you pay them $200, that’s fair. But if they get you back into your house in 3 minutes, all of a sudden it’s a rip off—even though they got you back into your house in 5% of the time.

This paradox extends to many fields, disciplines, and projects—especially when outcomes have a non-linear relationship with inputs.

Aspire to be the master locksmith. And remember to reward the master locksmith commensurate to the outcome, not the input.

I played my first game of Padel today, and I loved it.

It’s a hybrid between tennis and squash that is played on an enclosed court a little smaller than a tennis court. The scoring is the same as tennis, but the rackets are smaller, solid, and stringless. And similar to squash, the ball can be played off the walls which adds a really interesting dynamic to the game.

It’s less physically demanding than tennis, but the use of a tennis-like ball makes it more forgiving than squash—where the ball doesn’t bounce much.

I also love how easy it was to learn, and positive energy that can be built between 4 players on a small court.

To give you a better sense of the game and the gameplay, why not watch ‘the best point in padel history’. One caveat, I definitely didn’t play like this!

I came across a stunning chart today: Partisan differences in perceived share of deaths by age from COVID-19.

This isn’t a commentary on US politics (that’s not my thing!), but rather an appreciation post for how data can often tell the stories we can’t tell ourselves.

In life there is 1) what we think happens, 2) what everyone else thinks happens, and 3) what really happens. All three are usually different, and that’s okay.

But when there is data, and when it’s presented cleanly and clearly, we can start to identify gaps in our thinking.

Taking the above as an example, everyone overestimates COVID’s share of deaths for under 65s; swinging as far as 87x what’s actually occurring (i.e., democrats estimating COVID is responsible for 8.7% of deaths for those 24 and under). But everyone also massive underestimates COVID’s share of deaths for the over 65 category.

Data points that are placed into context tell fascinating stories. And if we’re willing to take the time to craft, check, and verify those stories, it can help us avoid or undo our faulty thinking.

Netflix is in a tough spot.

They made headlines this morning for their first decline in subscriber numbers in 10 years. They forecasted Q1 subscriber growth of 2.5 million, but actually lost 200,000. Even more striking is they forecast losing another 2 million in Q2.

They’re citing saturation in key markets, as well as mounting pressure from the likes of Disney, Apple, and Hulu, as being the reason for the decline.

However, what was most shocking to me was the 100 million people that watch Netflix by borrowing credentials from other users. That’s huge when their total subscriber base is 220 million.

To sum up the situation, Netflix has lost about 65% of its market value within the last 6 months. A staggering decline.

To combat the above, Netflix is considering clamping down on borrowed credentials, and is also looking to bring in a lower priced ads tier to their platform within the next year or two.

I worry it’s too little too late for Netflix. I don’t see how the above two responses will close the gap in revenue nor growth expectations.

It’s going to be interesting watching all this shake out over the coming year or so.

With respect to good habits and life principles, pick reminding over relearning.

Relearning is making the same mistakes and feeling the pain all over again.

Reminding is small actions to ensure the we keep the habit, or stick to the principle.

One example that’s been impactful for me is ‘Mind follows body’.

If I wake up, push past the inertia, and exercise first thing in the morning, my mind is much better prepared for the day ahead. I feel more alert, confident, and able to handle the volatility or challenges that come my way.

The easy part is believing in the principle. The hard part is putting it into practise everyday.

And on days where I don’t feel like it, I tell myself: reminding is a lot easier than relearning.

I love liking songs on Spotify. When you tap on that little heart icon, it immediately saves your songs in your ‘Liked Songs’ playlist. This allows me to create a powerful chronology of songs.

I’ve saved about 1,000 songs since early 2017, and when I scroll back through this date-ordered list I can identify periods, themes, and motifs in my listening. There’s the country phase, the a capella and musical theatre era, and the 70s period; all of it interspersed with a healthy mix of pop.

Each song I save adds to my musical story. It’s a fingerprint, a record, a set of breadcrumbs in the forest that can transport me back to moments, emotions, and periods in my life.

That’s special, and it’s something I look forward to continuing for years to come.

I was out on a walk earlier today when I heard a cacophony down the road.

Looking ahead, I saw it was a food delivery rider with a boom box on his bike. I couldn’t make out what he was blasting, but he was dancing and jiving to it without a care.

As he passed, I looked at pedestrians around me. All had big smiles on their face as they too enjoyed seeing the dancing cyclist on his joyride.

It doesn’t matter what you’re doing, if you’re doing it with heart and personality it’ll rub off on others and help them have a better day too.

When Conan O’Brien wrapped up his final appearance on The Tonight Show, his parting message was about cynicism.

“I’m asking this particularly of young people that watch: please do not be cynical. I hate cynicism. For the record, it’s my least favourite quality. It doesn’t lead anywhere. Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you’re kind, amazing things will happen.”

What’s missed is the context within which O’Brien shares these words.

He’s at the end of a 22-year relationship with NBC. Only 7 months earlier they moved him from ‘The Late Show’ to ‘The Tonight Show’, where he took the reins from Jay Leno, and held the primetime slot: directly after the late night local news.

However, due to poor ratings, NBC wanted to reshuffle the programming order and move O’Brien later in the evening. O’Brien refused, citing it would ruin the long and rich tradition of ‘The Tonight Show’ (it started back in 1954!).

O’Brien had every reason to be cynical, bitter, and despondent. Yet he chose to encourage the exact opposite. It’s the context that make his message all the more resonant.

The Formula 1 season is back, and I have to admit: it’s more than a phase.

I’ve watched most races within the past two years, Maru and I are going to the British Grand Prix later this year, and my family even got me a driving experience at the famous Silverstone Grand Prix track for my 30th birthday.

In the Formula 1 community, I’m what you’d call a “Neutral Fan”, meaning I don’t support a specific driver or team.

Instead, there are a handful of drivers and teams that I like seeing do well. And because that “handful” is about half the grid, I rarely disappointed.

This is in stark contrast to fans who are loyal to one driver. I even know folks who switch off the race if their driver crashes or has a bad start.

It’s a juxtaposition of density and volatility.

I spread my support, so I’m broadly happy with the result of most races.

Others concentrate their support, risking massive highs and painful lows on how their driver performs.

It’s comfortable to sit on the sidelines and be non-committal, but something tells me there’s more heart, soul, and fun when you go all in.

I’m also sure it applies to a lot more than Formula 1.

I’m a big fan of Unnecessary Inventions.

Matty spends his days making exactly that: unnecessary inventions—tools and machines that you don’t need, but they’re hilarious and immensely creative.

With all the talk and concern around rising inflation rates, I took a leaf out of Matty’s book and created the ’Tooth Fairy Inflation Calculator’. Here’s my pitch!

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“Are you a parent? Are your kid’s teeth falling out? With inflation rates rising, how do you know what amount to put under their pillow?

Don’t let your kid fleece you! Get rid of the guess work, and use this Tooth Fairy Inflation Calculator today!

Simply pick your country, input the year you got money from the tooth fairy, and type in how much you received. The calculator will automatically tell you the inflation-adjusted amount you should be giving your kid.

Don’t spoil your kid. Instead, give them what you got, but adjust it.”

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It’s a very basic hack I threw together in 30 mins. But I had fun finding the data set and exploring the different variables and scenarios! Let me know your thoughts, and share it with others if you like it!

About 3 years ago I read a post from Seth Godin which set me off on this daily blogging journey. It was called ‘The first 1,000 are the most difficult’.

It was also Seth’s 2016 interview with Tim Ferris, where he calls his daily blog “one of the top five career investments he’s ever made,” that convinced me to start.

It’s a great listen; start at minute 33 if you want to skip to the section on blogging. And I’d recommend sticking around at least until the story about Stephen King’s pencil!

And so, after seeing Seth advocate so strongly for daily blogging, I decided to give it a go. And, you guessed it, today marks my 1,000th post!

There’s was no shiny revelation, or striking epiphany, today. I’ve been believer for a long while now.

But I’m more convinced than ever that there is magic in turning up every day, noticing what’s going on around you, and sharing it in the most thoughtful and generous way possible.

Thanks, Seth! And here’s to the next 1,000!

I enjoy getting James Clear’s 3-2-1 Newsletter each week. It’s pithy, and always helps me see a situation or topic in a new light.

Today I came across one of last year’s editions, and this ‘Three steps to exceptional results’ stood out to me:

1) Do less. Stop dividing your attention.

2) Do it right now. Once you have identified the essential, go fast. Maintain a bias toward action.

3) Do it the right way. Acting quickly doesn’t mean acting carelessly. Get to work right away, but keep working on it until it’s right.

I like how each point builds upon the last, and how the steps become more impactful when executed sequentially.

Fewer things. Start now. And take great care to do it right.

It happens every year shortly after the UK’s Daylight Savings Time kicks in.

I’ll be out on a walk after 6pm and realise it isn’t dark anymore. I’ll notice there are flowers in bloom among the trees. Spring is arriving!

I’ll then make a beeline to the pharmacy to pick up hay fever tablets.

I spent enough years thinking “I’ll wait until the allergies arrive” to know that my body and spring don’t get on. And with some simple preventative steps, I can avoid weeks of discomfort.

Although the example may feel trivial, the lesson is plain to see because of the direct cause and effect relationship between pollen and allergies.

Being a few steps ahead makes a big difference. Especially when the problem space is complex, nebulous, and where a direct relationship between variables hasn’t been established.

By proactively getting ahead of the problem, we can avoid headaches down the line.

Developer Simon Sarris asks a simple, but challenging, question:

“If you know what you want, why are you waiting?”

And if there are many reasons, what’s the simplest next step you can take?

Russell recommended I read Oliver Burkeman’s column ‘the eight secrets to a fairly fulfilled life’.

This was the final edition of Burkeman’s ‘This column will change your life’ that ran weekly from 2006 to 2020.

The purpose of this final column was to give the stage to the principles that came up over and over again during the column’s 14-year run.

I had heard of Burkeman, but I hadn’t read anything of his before. I connected immediately with his style: both tongue-in-cheek and earnest, but also piercing with clarity.

A few of the eight “secrets” resonated deeply.

There will always be too much to do – and this realisation is liberating.
My takeaway: Don’t beat yourself up for this one. Most of modern life feels like a constant learning, and relearning, of this lesson.

When stumped by a life choice, choose “enlargement” over happiness.
My takeaway: Us humans are bad at predicting what will make us happy. So we should choose that which will help us grow the most.

The capacity to tolerate minor discomfort is a superpower.
My takeaway: How many of life’s greatest ambitions are set aside due to the avoidance of “tolerable levels of unpleasantness?” Chilling.

The future will never provide the reassurance you seek from it.
My takeaway: Stop trying to control what you can’t.

I’m looking forward to poking through a few more of Burkeman’s columns. Thanks again for the recommendation, Russell!