“It is said that the best horses lose when they compete with slower ones and win against better rivals. Undercompensation from the absence of a stressor, absence of challenge, degrades the best of the best.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
This was a nice reminder that there’s a time to sprint, and a time to rest.
But when we sprint, and if we want to grow, we should find the fiercest challenge around. The absence of a stressor is dangerous.
Whenever I’ve tried standing desks, I’ve always ended up giving up due to discomfort.
I get lost in what I’m doing and end up slumping or leaning to one side. This puts excess strain on my hips, and my knees take a hyperextended pounding.
That is until my friend Dave told me about wobble boards.
They are circular pieces of wood with a ball at the bottom. When you stand on the board, you need to keep your legs and core engaged to be able to balance effectively.
I bought one, and now I’m able to “standing desk” all day without pain or discomfort. It’s also great for a fidgeter like me as it’s something for my subconscious to focus on to help me listen more actively in meetings.
I realised today that over the past few years I’ve become a big fan of most things ‘direct’.
Direct communication. I’m not a fan of beating about the bush anymore.
Direct flights. Layovers to save money are rarely worth the lost time and inconvenience.
Direct to Consumer businesses. I love the accountability, service, and products from these companies. Ace and Tate’s glasses, Harry’s razors, Eve’s mattresses, All Birds shoes, and Grenade’s protein bars.
The presence of the word ‘direct’ changes the meaning of these concepts, and it makes them all better.
Founder of Product Hunt, Ryan Hoover, shared a passage from the book ‘The Courage to be Disliked’, and it struck a chord.
“I have a young friend who dreams of becoming a novelist, but he never seems to be able to complete his work. According to him, his job keeps him too busy and he can never find enough time to write novels, and that’s why he can’t complete his work and enter it for writing awards. But is that the real reason? No! It’s actually that he wants to leave the possibility of “I can do it if I try” open, by not committing to anything. He doesn’t want to expose his work to criticism, and he certainly doesn’t want to face the reality that he might produce an inferior piece of writing and face rejection. He want to live inside that realm of possibilities, where he can say that he could do it if he only had the time, or that he could write if he just had the proper environment, and that he really does have the talent for it. In another five or ten years, he will probably start using other excuses like “I’m not young anymore” or “I’ve got a family to think about now.”
It got me thinking: What dreams do I really want to pursue? Where am I choosing to “live inside a realm of possibilities”? And what am I going to do about it if I encounter an answer I don’t like?
In a post from a couple days ago I made a few comments on what the future could look like.
It got me thinking more about prediction vs. direction.
Predicting the future is really hard—particularly the precision part.
But when making our plans, predicting is less important than knowing the direction of travel.
There are clues as to where the world is moving. We may not know the coordinates for longitude or latitude, but knowing that it’s better to travel east than west, or north rather than south, may be all that’s needed to choose the right next step.
Since my post on Factorio, I’ve been getting back into real-time strategy (RTS) games. I’m enjoying learning how to play a classic: Starcraft II—a military science fiction game.
There are two critical things you need to be able to do in RTS games: 1) build and manage an economy, and 2) devise a way to beat your opponent. It’s just like chess, but with dozens of moves per minute, and with both players moves being made simultaneously.
One lesson I’ve learnt is I can “work hard” and apply the same strategy game after game, but until I ask, “Are there better approaches? Are there better ways to solve this? Are there more efficient ways forward?” I’m destined to remain at the same level.
Constantly asking how I can improve is essential to progressing, in games and in life.
I was talking with a friend recently about how most kids today have no idea what a landline phone is—or that it was the primary form of communication 30 years ago.
It got me thinking about what’s going to sound weird for kids 30-50 years from now (i.e., my grandkids).
They’ll probably think it was crazy how we used to drive cars and risk our lives every time we did so.
They’ll likely think its weird how we used to spend hours each day interacting with these little devices with 5 inches screens, instead of using our glasses, headsets, or contact lenses.
They’ll find it strange that we used to be a single-planet species.
It may feel like a distant future, but I think it’s going to arrive much faster and sooner than we expect.
My back tire gave out recently on my beloved Brompton bicycle.
I then realised it was 2 years overdue for a service. Oops!
But I was busy at work, worried about the cost of the replacement, and unsure which bicycle shop would provide the best service, so I procrastinated.
For 3 weeks, I used city bike shares and the Underground, but after getting frustrated at my lack of mobility and flexibility, I eventually booked an appointment to get my bike fixed.
The experience was much faster, easier, and cheaper than I expected. My fears and worries were proven unfounded.
I then asked myself: Why did I procrastinate for so long? Why did I deal with 3 weeks of subpar transportation when I could’ve got the problem solved much sooner?
From now on, I’m going to try be on the front foot with maintenance—and not just with my bike!
Although it started back in 1996, I only discovered Long Bets today, and I think the concept is awesome.
“Long Bets is a public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions, of interest to society, with philanthropic money at stake.”
Academics and thought leaders, as well as anyone on the internet, are invited to make bets on the future, with the money won being donated to charity.
What I love about it is the public nature of each bet, and how money given to a philanthropic cause adds necessary jeopardy — without money, it’s just opinions.
Here are some of my favourite bets:
By 2035 there will be at least 10 people living on Mars for a period of more than 2 months (time period: 2020 – 2035; ).
At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150 (time period: 2002-2150).
A bitcoin will be worth less than $1000US by the end of 2025 (time period: 2020-2025) – I find it hard to see this one coming true.
I wrote last month about New Zealand’s weird lottery system for citizens trying to get back into the country—each person has a roughly 10:1 shot at getting a spot in a Managed Isolation and Quarantine facility.
Well, I have good news: I got a spot!
Come December, I’ll be heading to New Zealand and I’ll be seeing my family for the first time in 2 years—it feels crazy just typing it!
The timing couldn’t be more perfect either: I’ll get out of the quarantine facility just a few days before Christmas.
I recognise how lucky I am; especially since more than 30,000 New Zealand citizens are still trying to find a way home. But I’m counting my blessings and will certainly make the visit count!
The vaccination rates in the United Kingdom and New Zealand are now very similar; with double vaccinations sitting at 65% and 67% respectively.
Yet the COVID measures in place in each country are still wildly different.
In the UK, there are practically no restrictions. There are no quarantines, mask mandates, vaccine passports, and no restrictions on the freedom of movement.
In New Zealand, the opposite is true (at least in some way shape or form) for all of the above.
I was discussing this with a friend over the weekend and the idea of societal tolerance came up: how willing are people in a given country to comply with the rules set out by their governments?
Perhaps it’s due to COVID fatigue, but having seen the UK live without restrictions for the better part of 6 months, it’s inconceivable to think of this country going back into to any sort of lockdown.
Whereas in New Zealand, a slow and cautious rollout seems to be the only thing on the roadmap ahead.
There are a few behavioural economists that read this blog, and I’d love to hear your thoughts, as I certainly have more questions than I do answers.
Daylight savings ended last night in the UK—the clocks went back by 1 hour.
This used to be something I worried about when I had weekend shifts at the local movie theatre during high school.
However, this morning I realised my daily post hadn’t been emailed out.
After some debugging, I realised the UK wound its clocks back shortly before my post was due to be sent. I think my post got “lost” as the clocks changed.
So I sent out a manual campaign, no big deal.
But today’s hiccup served as a reminder of the importance of systems and automated checks to make sure things work as they should.
Of course, if my daily post doesn’t go out for one day, that isn’t a big issue, but there are products and services that depend on everything always working. The electricity network, food supply chains, and public transport to name a few.
It’s food for thought.
When making or debating a decision, most people default to a pros and cons list. This is a reasonable approach. When faced with multiple options, it’s important to think about the upsides and downsides of each one.
The problem with pros and cons lists, though, is they’re not objective. It’s easy for people to disagree on the contents of the list. There is no objective measure to compare options because what what may be a pro to you, may be a con for me.
But there is a better way.
An excellent product leader at Facebook gave me a framework for debating decisions that has become my go to. I’ve been using it consistently for a year, and it has yet to fail as an approach to help people with different points of view have a fair debate and get to a decision.
It’s called the Options and Trade-offs Table.
I’ve sketched up what this table looks like in the abstract, and then we can dive into how it’s used.
There are few critical rules we must follow to make this work:
The thing I love about the Options and Trade-offs Table is that by focusing the debate DIMENSIONS, it helps removes personal bias, and makes the trade-offs clear for any given option set.
It’s so useful that now whenever members of my team disagree, someone instinctively suggests that the group puts together an Options and Trade-offs table.
If you end up giving it a go, please let me know how you find it!
Here’s to making better, faster, clearer, and bolder decisions.
I was a too ambitious earlier this week.
In trying to hit a personal best in the gym, my mind was so focused on the lift that I forgot to breathe. My head quickly went into a spin, and my vision was mildly blurry for the next 10 minutes as I waited for the headache to subside.
In order to grow we need to embrace new stresses, but it’s also easy to push ourselves too far—to go beyond what we’re capable of.
Knowing our limits, but still maintaining some margin for error, is a hard balance to achieve, but one that’s necessary for proper growth.
I first came across ‘United Breaks Guitars’ about 10 years ago.
It’s a song and music video from a disgruntled passenger who had his guitar broken by United. After 9 months of stonewalling from the airline, he took things into his own hands by writing a country song about his frustrations.
It’s always been a fun and funny ditty that I’ve enjoyed coming back to over the years. However, earlier this week Maru shared a case study with me that analysed the impact the song had on the company, and it was astounding.
Apparently, United lost $180m in value, or 10% of its market capitalisation, following the viral spread of the video. The cost of the broken guitar? $3,500. The cost of the song and music video? $150.
Music and comedy—both great tools for keeping companies and organisations honest.