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“Never confuse a single defeat with a final defeat” – F. Scott Fitzgerald

What’s the value of being able to tell the difference?

AirBnb launched in August 2008 with this user interface.

What are those listing names? Those colours? The slogan?

I love it.

It reminds me of the Reid Hoffman aphorism: If you’re not embarrassed by the first version of your product, you’ve launched too late.

There’s a lot of chatter at the moment about the Metaverse.

Firstly, what is the Metaverse?

The Metaverse is being described as the successor to the internet.

We currently experience the internet in 2D: on webpages and mobile apps. The Metaverse will be an immersive and embodied internet. We’ll spend time in worlds and spaces as 3D avatars, and we’ll access those worlds via VR headsets, AR glasses, mobile devices, gaming consoles, and yet to be invented devices.

Although Zoom allows us to see and communicate with people on a 2D screen, the Metaverse will add 3D presence to online interactions. Although we can buy and purchase products online today, the Metaverse will have digital products that we buy with digital currency—the ownership of these assets will be confirmed and secured via the blockchain.

It may sound futuristic, but the Metaverse already exists in some really successful forms—take Fortnite as an example.

Most people—read: parents—think of Fortnite as “just a game”, but it’s a functioning and thriving instance of the Metaverse.

It has more than 350 million users, who collectively spend more than 3 billion hours playing each month—and average of 8.5 hours per user; which is nuts!

To prove it’s more than just a game, let’s take a look at the in-game live concert that they put on with artist, Travis Scott. Over 12 million users attended the live concert. To put this number in perspective, this is the equivalent of filling Wembley Stadium 133 times. Travis Scott made an estimated $21 million from the event.

Fortnite is just one example of what the Metaverse can be. Think of Fortnite being a leading player—like an Amazon or a Google. And think of the Metaverse being the platform upon which the next wave of companies, innovations, and technologies are built.

Crazy.

Note: If you’re interested in reading more on the Metaverse, I’d recommend checking out Matthew Ball’s Metaverse Primer.

It’s now been 9 months since I started writing a daily entry in my 5-year diary.

I’m really glad I started this project.

The investment is small: it takes 1-2 minutes before bed to write about the most memorable thing from that day.

And the return is high: I already find myself regularly flipping back to previous entries where I’m immediately transported back to those days and moments. I’m now remembering things I would’ve otherwise forgotten.

I’m finding the habit so rewarding that the space in the 5-year-diary isn’t enough. So I’ve also bought another 1-year diary which I’m using as a personal log book.

Log books have naval origins. Ships use them to keep track of where they travelled and the key events that occured on a given day. Inspired by this, my personal log book is a chronological list of things that happened day, interspersed with notes on what I’ve been reading, new ideas, and lessons learnt.

I really value being able to see what I was thinking and feeling at a specific point time, and I’m finally happy with my system.

I’ve been making my way through ‘Numbers don’t lie’—the latest book from Bill Gates’ favourite author, Vaclav Smil.

The subtitle of the book is ’71 thing you need to know about the world’, and it summarises a number of excellent insights across global food and energy systems, transportation, globalisation, and population.

I went for the ‘Food’ section first. Half out of interest. Half due to hunger.

What I love about this book is how the insights aren’t independent, they all weave together to form a nuanced perspective on complex systems.

For example, if we didn’t have synthetic ammonia—which is the key ingredient in synthetic fertilisers used in agriculture today—we wouldn’t be able to secure enough food for 3 billion people. That’s equivalent to the populations of China and India combined.

At the same time, the nitrates from agricultural fertiliser run-off are causing significant dead zones in our ocean. A proper catch-22.

Furthermore, 60% of crop harvests in North America and Europe are used for feeding livestock, not people. It completely shocked me that 15,000 litres of water is required to produce 1kg of boneless beef.

Add to the above the fact that humanity wastes more than one third of all harvested food, and we’ve got an insanely complex and confusing food dilemma on our hands.

It’s not all bad news though. Smil sets out some clear and data-driven changes that we can make to improve our personal lives (e.g., eating less meat), and to improve society as a whole (e.g., tighter regulation on the fishing of endangered aquatic species).

“You cannot quiet the mind, you can only watch it.”—Naval

I’ve been thinking a lot about this Naval quote recently. I’ve also been trying to put it into practice.

When tired, flustered, or annoyed, I’ll often try and force my mind into tranquility.

Sounds oxymoronic now that I write it out.

Just like we can’t force sleep at the end of the day, it’s hard—or close to impossible—to force ourselves into a state of calm.

Over the past few years, I’ve found the mindfulness apps, like Headspace and Calm, to be helpful. They encourage users to practise observing their thoughts. The observation happens without judgement, and without manipulation of emotions or reactions.

The positive second-order consequence of this practice is that the mind ends up quietening after it’s had a chance to observe, acknowledge, and let go.

Note: This post is part of a weekly series called ‘Seneca Sundays’. Each week, I reflect on one of Seneca’s ‘Moral Letters to Lucilius’, and summarise the most practical and useful principles to share with you.

Seneca spends most of this letter talking about blushing—yeah, it’s what you’re thinking: when our cheeks get red from embarrassment or modesty.

I didn’t find this topic to be interesting, compelling, or practical, but in the closing paragraphs of the letter Seneca turns to another topic which will be the focus of this post.

1. Choose a Mind Guardian to watch you

“Cherish some person of high character, and keep them ever before your eyes, living as if they were watching you.”

Seneca’s point is we’re likely to improve our behaviour if we “have a witness who stands near us when we are likely to do wrong,” even if that person is merely a guardian within our own minds.

I like to think of this person as a “Mind Guardian”.

2. Aspire to be a Mind Guardian for someone else

“Happy is the person who can make others better, not merely when he is in their company, but even when he is in their thoughts!”

This may seem like an arrogant ambition, but I actually think it’s something that naturally occurs in healthy relationships.

In the same way that I admire the compassion and consistency of my parents, they inspire me to try and be the same for others. Or how some of my friends are the ones who ask the most genuine questions, the thought of them challenges me to ask my own.

3. A Mind Guardian is much like a ruler; the measuring kind

A Mind Guardian is someone who helps us “regulate our character,” this is important because we “can never straighten that which is crooked unless we use a ruler.”

They’re a point of reference to help us know when we’re on track or off course.

“Happy are they who can so revere a person as to calm and regulate themselves by calling them to mind!”

It’s rarely easier than we think.

It’s rarely less complicated.

It’s rarely straightforward.

But in all that mess, where nothing seems obvious, that’s where we get given the unique opportunity to make things better.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve heard a lot about Giannis.

The greek basketball superstar was the deciding factor in the Milwaukee Bucks recent winning of the NBA finals.

At 26 years old, he has the poise and composure of a player much older. In particular, I loved this video and his response to a reporter’s question on ego and mindset.

“When you focus on the past, that’s your ego… And when I focus on the future it’s my pride… And I kind of like to focus in the moment, in the present. And that’s humility. That’s being humble.”

Each Olympics, I keep an eye on the medals per capita tally.

Despite being pipped in the rankings by San Marino and Bermuda, New Zealand’s 15 medals puts them in 3rd place—or one medal for every 320,000 people.

Although it’s not an official measure, it still gives me pride to seem my homeland “punch above its weight.”

It’s also just a fun data set to look at if you’re interested.

I really like this email from Jim Allchin to Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer back in 2004.

Allchin thought Microsoft had lost its way, and that Apple was doing a much better job at building what mattered most to customers. He admired that Apple thought simple, that they thought fast, and that they thought in customer scenarios.

He didn’t keep this point of view to himself, he sent it directly to the people in charge.

Being honest with ourselves is painful, but living in a fantasy is far more costly.

Heard it before?

It doesn’t mean anything. No purpose, nor function. It’s a throwaway. It’s something we say when, well, we haven’t got much to say.

Words are powerful. It’s better to say less, than to make a lot of noise but really say nothing at all.

The person who lights the fuse may not be the right person to fan the flames.

The tough part is figuring out which role is ours to play, and which we should leave for others.

Note: This post is part of a weekly series called ‘Seneca Sundays’. Each week, I reflect on one of Seneca’s ‘Moral Letters to Lucilius’, and summarise the most practical and useful principles to share with you.

Seneca writes this letter soon after coming down with an illness and escaping to the countryside to recover.

1. Travelling does not make us better people

“Travelling cannot give us judgement, or shake off our errors; it merely holds our attention for a moment by a certain novelty… it will not make us better.”

“As long as we are ignorant of what we should avoid or seek, or of what is necessary or superfluous, or of what is right or wrong, we will not be travelling, but merely wandering.”

Travel can often be seen as an escape—as a break from our worries, challenges, errors, and faults—but we bring all of that with us. Travel should be no substitute for what’s most important: pursuing wisdom and virtue.

2. Be careful in determining what is good

“Suppose that you hold wealth to be a good: poverty will then distress you, and—which is pitiable—it will be an imaginary poverty. For you may be rich, and nevertheless, because your neighbour is richer, you suppose yourself to be poor exactly by the same amount in which you fall short of your neighbour. You may deem an official position a good; you will be vexed at another’s appointment to the consulship. Your ambition will be so frenzied that you will regard yourself last in the race if there is anyone in front of you.”

There is always going to be someone richer, someone smarter, someone luckier.

Comparison is a guaranteed misery.

3. Two quotes I’m still pondering

1. “If you are wise, mingle these two elements: do not hope without despair, or despair without hope.”
   
2. “Liberty cannot be gained for nothing. If you set a high value on liberty, you must set a low value on everything else.”

I found this article from the Atlantic super helpful in understanding what breakthrough infections are, and how to think about the role of vaccines despite the looming threat of breakthrough infections.

In particular, I liked the metaphor running throughout the article:

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“To understand the anatomy of a breakthrough case, it’s helpful to think of the human body as a castle. Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunologist at the University of Arizona, compares immunization to reinforcing such a stronghold against assault.

Without vaccination, the castle’s defenders have no idea an attack is coming. They might have stationed a few aggressive guard dogs outside, but these mutts aren’t terribly discerning: They’re the system’s innate defenders, fast-acting and brutal, but short-lived and woefully imprecise. They’ll sink their teeth into anything they don’t recognize, and are easily duped by stealthier invaders. If only quarrelsome canines stand between the virus and the castle’s treasures, that’s a pretty flimsy first line of defense. But it’s essentially the situation that many uninoculated people are in. Other fighters, who operate with more precision and punch—the body’s adaptive cells—will eventually be roused. Without prior warning, though, they’ll come out in full force only after a weeks-long delay, by which time the virus may have run roughshod over everything it can. At that point, the fight may, quite literally, be at a fever pitch, fueling worsening symptoms.

Vaccination completely rewrites the beginning, middle, and end of this story. COVID-19 shots act as confidential informants, who pass around intel on the pathogen within the castle walls. With that info, defensive cells can patrol the building’s borders, keeping an eye out for a now-familiar foe. When the virus attempts to force its way in, it will hit “backup layer after backup layer” of defense, Bhattacharya told me.

Prepped by a vaccine, immune reinforcements will be marshaled to the fore much faster—within days of an invasion, sometimes much less. Adaptive cells called B cells, which produce antibodies, and T cells, which kill virus-infected cells, will have had time to study the pathogen’s features, and sharpen their weapons against it. While the guard dogs are pouncing, archers trained to recognize the virus will be shooting it down; the few microbes that make their way deeper inside will be gutted by sword-wielding assassins lurking in the shadows. “Each stage it has to get past takes a bigger chunk out” of the virus, Bhattacharya said. Even if a couple particles eke past every hurdle, their ranks are fewer, weaker, and less damaging.”