Dan's Daily

Twitter user, @Orinithophilel, posted a great photo yesterday.

His challenge: “Did you know that Hog Deer follow tigers? They let off continuous alarm calls and keep following them from a safe distance. Tell me why.”

The answer: “The Tiger is an ambush predator. It hides and strikes. When a deer can see him, it can outrun him. Once sighted deer prefer to keep the tiger in sight so as to avoid being hunted.”

There’s a great metaphor in here.

What’s the tiger that could throw your project, plan, or team off track?

How are you keeping your eye on the tiger to avoid the headache?

A new cafe just opened up 2 minutes down the road.

The counter staff were disinterested and unwelcoming. Their food was placed in the window and was baking in the sun. And their drinks were hot to the point of being burnt and undrinkable.

Any one of the above would be forgivable. But together, it gave the impression the cafe didn’t think deeply enough about the experience they’d give to customers.

After one visit, I made up my mind to continue walking 7 minutes down the road to my usual cafe. The additional 5 minutes walk for a significantly better experience is well worth it.

Consumers can be fickle. If we’re trying to serve them, we may only get a few chances.

Maru and I are away for the long weekend with good friends in the English countryside.

This is the fourth time we’re staying in an AirBnb that’s a standalone unit next to the owner’s home. Rather than the highly commercialised feel of AirBnbs within cities, it really does feel like the experience AirBnb set out to build: people opening up their homes to travellers.

One thing that I’ve found about these properties in particular is that everything’s just works. The care and thought put into the space and the amenities make the stay easy and enjoyable. It’s a distinctly different feel to the more commercial AirBnbs where it’s clear they’ve tried to cut a few too many corners.

It reminds me of the quote: how you do anything is how you do everything.

We had to put Ruby down today. She was a beagle with a huge personality, and my family’s dog for the past 12 years.

It all started when I was 9 years old. My sister and I made signs and picketed out the front of our house—petitioning our parents to get us a dog.

Almost a decade later, my mum finally relented. To be honest, I don’t know why we chose a beagle, but it was probably the ears. Beagles have the best ears.

Ruby was mischievous, sassy, and strong willed from day one. She’d always find a way on to the couch, and when you told her to get off, she’d conveniently look the other way—pretending like she couldn’t hear.

Once I left New Zealand in 2013, my annual reunion with Ruby became a thing. Upon arriving at Mum and Dad’s house, I’d get down on all fours, and Ruby would run over, nuzzle into my face, and whimper for a full minute as I greeted her.

Every morning and evening, you could find Ruby on my dad’s lap. She’d sit expectantly until he put her special blanket on his lap and she could jump up, settle in, and take a nap.

Dogs allow us to see and experience a pure form of love. They turn up every day with a wagging tail and are overjoyed to just be together. That was Ruby for our family.

Run free, Ruby.

Back in 2019, Maru and I made the decision to move to more sustainable products in the home. Some changes we kept, and some didn’t work out (read: making our own cleaning solution using white vinegar).

One change that has persisted has been me switching from using disposable razors to using a safety razor. It’s been a hugely positive change, and I realised that I’ve never written about it.

I bought a Merkur 34C stainless steel razor for £34, and it looks exactly the same as when I bought it. I also bought a pack of 100 blades that came in 100% cardboard packaging for £10, and I haven’t even finished the pack yet.

I broke even versus disposable razors within a year, and I feel much better about all the plastic waste that I’m avoiding.

The safety razor did take a little bit of getting used to though. The single blade means you need to get the angle right to get a close shave, versus disposable razor cartridges that typically have 4-5 blades.

My only bug bear is the safety razor is hard to travel with; I can’t take blades in a carry-on for obvious reasons, so I end up switching to disposables when travelling.

After 3 years, the net benefit of the change has been positive, and I see no reason to go back to disposables.

Each year on his birthday, Kevin Kelly shares a list of pithy life advice.

I’m a big fan of Kelly. He’s a futurist, optimist, technologist, and creative powerhouse all wrapped into one.

Kelly turned 70 earlier this week and I’ve already read his latest list of life advice multiple times, as well as re-reading his previous lists.

Here are some of my favourite:

Productivity is often a distraction. Don’t aim for better ways to get through your tasks as quickly as possible, rather aim for better tasks that you never want to stop doing.

Speak confidently as if you are right, but listen carefully as if you are wrong.

The consistency of your endeavors (exercise, companionship, work) is more important than the quantity. Nothing beats small things done every day, which is way more important than what you do occasionally.

What you do on your bad days matters more than what you do on your good days.

You can be whatever you want, so be the person who ends meetings early.

Cognitive biases can be dangerous. If left undetected, these errors in our thinking can lead us down many a wrong road.

Given their abstract nature, it can be difficult to find 1) an exhaustive list of cognitive biases, and 2) clear descriptions and explanations for each. Which is why I’m writing today about Wikipedia’s List of Cognitive Biases.

It doesn’t take long to read, but by the end of it, I’m confident you’ll have learnt something new, or will have been reminded about a bias that you want to avoid.

Here was my favourite new one: Effort Justification. We tend to attribute greater value to an outcome the more effort we put into achieving it. This can result in more value being applied to an outcome than it actually has. A great example of this is the IKEA Effect: people place higher value on items they assemble themselves, regardless of the quality of the end product.

Happy reading!

I’m not against acronyms. Groups that have a shared understanding of their content and culture can use them effectively.

But acronyms can be hard for new members of the group to grasp. In addition to meeting new people, learning new content, and figuring out how the team works, they have to deal with a bunch of letters lumped together that make no sense at first glance.

So here’s a simple rule: when someone asks what an acronym means, why not introduce an acronym moratorium for the next 10 times the acronym is used? This would involve writing out, or speaking, the acronym in full words. You can follow-up with the acronym (in brackets) to help people learn it.

I’ve learn that if one person has a question on what an acronym means, or on a particular piece of content, there is usually someone else in the group who has the same question.

Why not invest in making it easier for everyone to follow along?

“If you can’t be happy with a cup of coffee, you won’t be happy with a yacht.”

You can replace yacht with anything you like.

And you can replace coffee with your drink of choice, but don’t go any further.

This simple thought can serve as a powerful, daily reminder to be grateful for today, the present, and what we already have.

Note: I had trouble finding the source of this idea—I thought it was from Naval, but I believe it may be misattributed. Regardless, the idea is strong enough to stand on its own, even without a named author.

The crowd gathers, gets excited, and eventually dissipates.

What’s new never stays new for long. We make progress, and move on to the next thing.

The photo below is from the opening of the first ATM in the world. It’s taken outside a Barclays Bank in London in 1967.

What we remove is often more important than what we add.

It doesn’t matter if we’re building products, buying things, cooking a meal, or planning our social calendar, things end up getting messy, bloated, and inefficient when we get caught in the trap of always adding more.

Removing stuff is hard though. It forces us to decide on the relative importance of things. It’s easier to skip deciding and live with the clutter.

But when this happens, our possessions end up owning us, our processes slow us down, our products become unusable, our meals are a traffic jam of flavours, and our social calendars are exhausting.

So, what’s one thing you could remove to make next week easier?

A few of you may recall Maru and I were recently locked out of our flat, and had to call a locksmith to let us back in.

The 20 minute call-out ended up costing an eye-watering sum, but after a long-haul flight and a two week trip, we were just happy to get back into our flat.

This experience made me notice what’s called the locksmith paradox; a concept from Dan Ariely, a Psychology and Behavior Economics Professor at Duke University.

He describes that as a locksmith gets better at their job, they upset their customers because they get the job done faster.

This example gets to the heart of a mistake we’re prone to make with respect to perception of value. It’s easy to equate value with time, rather than outcomes.

If the locksmith puts in a solid hour’s work, and you pay them $200, that’s fair. But if they get you back into your house in 3 minutes, all of a sudden it’s a rip off—even though they got you back into your house in 5% of the time.

This paradox extends to many fields, disciplines, and projects—especially when outcomes have a non-linear relationship with inputs.

Aspire to be the master locksmith. And remember to reward the master locksmith commensurate to the outcome, not the input.

I played my first game of Padel today, and I loved it.

It’s a hybrid between tennis and squash that is played on an enclosed court a little smaller than a tennis court. The scoring is the same as tennis, but the rackets are smaller, solid, and stringless. And similar to squash, the ball can be played off the walls which adds a really interesting dynamic to the game.

It’s less physically demanding than tennis, but the use of a tennis-like ball makes it more forgiving than squash—where the ball doesn’t bounce much.

I also love how easy it was to learn, and positive energy that can be built between 4 players on a small court.

To give you a better sense of the game and the gameplay, why not watch ‘the best point in padel history’. One caveat, I definitely didn’t play like this!

I came across a stunning chart today: Partisan differences in perceived share of deaths by age from COVID-19.

This isn’t a commentary on US politics (that’s not my thing!), but rather an appreciation post for how data can often tell the stories we can’t tell ourselves.

In life there is 1) what we think happens, 2) what everyone else thinks happens, and 3) what really happens. All three are usually different, and that’s okay.

But when there is data, and when it’s presented cleanly and clearly, we can start to identify gaps in our thinking.

Taking the above as an example, everyone overestimates COVID’s share of deaths for under 65s; swinging as far as 87x what’s actually occurring (i.e., democrats estimating COVID is responsible for 8.7% of deaths for those 24 and under). But everyone also massive underestimates COVID’s share of deaths for the over 65 category.

Data points that are placed into context tell fascinating stories. And if we’re willing to take the time to craft, check, and verify those stories, it can help us avoid or undo our faulty thinking.

Netflix is in a tough spot.

They made headlines this morning for their first decline in subscriber numbers in 10 years. They forecasted Q1 subscriber growth of 2.5 million, but actually lost 200,000. Even more striking is they forecast losing another 2 million in Q2.

They’re citing saturation in key markets, as well as mounting pressure from the likes of Disney, Apple, and Hulu, as being the reason for the decline.

However, what was most shocking to me was the 100 million people that watch Netflix by borrowing credentials from other users. That’s huge when their total subscriber base is 220 million.

To sum up the situation, Netflix has lost about 65% of its market value within the last 6 months. A staggering decline.

To combat the above, Netflix is considering clamping down on borrowed credentials, and is also looking to bring in a lower priced ads tier to their platform within the next year or two.

I worry it’s too little too late for Netflix. I don’t see how the above two responses will close the gap in revenue nor growth expectations.

It’s going to be interesting watching all this shake out over the coming year or so.