Dan's Daily

I’m a big fan of consistency. A few examples of previous posts on the subject can be found here, here, here, here, and here.

To be clear, I’m talking about consistency in one’s level of effort and application (e.g., exercising daily), not rigidity in one’s thinking (e.g., an unwillingness to change opinion).

The problem with consistency is it’s hard to measure in any short term time horizon. This is because meaningful progress is often non-linear, where change happens slowly over many years.

So when I see an example of remarkable consistency, and it’s summarised in a bite-sized format, I feel compelled to share it.

Simone Mulas is a hyper-realistic portrait artist, and the 1-minute video below shows how he improved from the age of 9 through to 31. The fruits of his years of painstaking practise are summarised so well and is so inspiring, I don’t need to add anything else. Enjoy!

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A post shared by Simone Mulas (@slim_draw)

If there’s an issue with the video embed for those who subscribe by email, you can find the video here.

I was recently recommended this fascinating paper which outlines how the practice of deliberately disagreeing with yourself can lead to better decisions.

Here are the core ideas behind the the study:

1. Making good decisions relies upon our ability to make sound estimates of unknown quantities
2. Typically, the aggregate estimates of a group outperform the estimate of an individual (e.g., diverse teams usually perform better than homogenous teams)
3. However, the same benefit can be seen when we aggregate multiple estimates from the same person
4. Here’s what the study recommends: “combine people’s first estimate with their second estimate made from the perspective of someone they often disagree with.”

So next time you’re making a decision, have a go at creating a second estimate from the perspective of someone you often disagree with. Then find the aggregate of those two estimates. It’ll likely outperform your first estimate. And for extra marks, sense check your aggregate estimate with others you trust.

Some of you will have already seen or read about DALL•E 2 in the past 24 hours, but I can’t resist sharing.

DALL•E 2 is an AI system from Open AI that creates realistic images and art from a text input. The model itself is trained against a vast database of text-image pairs.

Open AI’s CEO, Sam Altman, asked his Twitter followers to submit strings of text and he’d reply with the image generated by DALL•E. The results are nothing short of astounding.

In fact, the more words, the better!

I also found Sam’s reflections interesting to read.

He acknowledges the possibilities: this is perhaps the beginning of a new computer interface trend (i.e., you say something to a machine in natural language, and it does it).

He recognises the danger: the model is already powerful enough to imagine the downsides such as disinformation.

He also reminds us that AI predictions are so difficult to make: 10 years ago we believed AI would replace physical labour, cognitive labour, and only then tackle creative tasks. It seems now that the reverse could be true.

It’s tempting to start with an answer, an opinion, or a possible way forward.

But we risk speaking without the adequate level of context, information, or data.

It’s good to build a habit of leading with questions. Not just any questions though, but ones that get to the heart of the matter, the misalignment, or the motive.

Hold off on answering for a moment. Get curious. Ask better questions.

See what happens.

The Grammys are great for music discovery.

Scroll down the winners list, find a genre you like but maybe aren’t familiar with, pick a winner or nominee, and listen to the album they were nominated for.

It’s a lovely way to break out of the Spotify genre echo chamber.

I’m a big fan of listening to music when I’m working, especially music in languages other than English. I don’t get distracted by the lyrics and end up appreciating the vocal melodies and intonations in the same way I do with other instruments in the arrangement.

Today’s listen was the winner of the Best Regional Roots Music Album: “Kau Ka Pe’a” from Hawaiian artist Kalani Pe’a.

Felt like I was working from Maui.

Maru and I got back from Argentina this morning only to find ourselves locked out of our flat.

We forgot to tell the friend who was taking care our plants to only use the Yale lock rather than the deadbolt. They’d also just left town for a work trip, meaning we had no way to get in.

The locksmith arrived within the hour, got our front door open, but then had a look of concern on his face. He said our locks were non-compliant with fire safety regulations. He explained that in the event of an emergency, our current locks could enable someone to be trapped inside the flat, and because we’re on the 4th floor, that person would have no way of getting out of the building without risking serious injury.

Although it was a frustrating morning, we had deadbolt fortune today. We learnt something important that would help keep us safer in the long run.

When things don’t go to plan, there’s often a lesson or silver lining that can be found. Those moments should be celebrated too!

Cycling is good for the environment, right?

Yes, when looking at first-order effects. If you’re on a bike, rather than in a car, train, or bus, you’re emitting less carbon into the atmosphere.

But once second-order effects are taken into account, paradoxically we may emit more carbon in the long run by taking up cycling.

A 2009 study from Karl Ulrich at the Wharton School found, “The environmental benefits of human power are, however, strongly coupled to the environmental costs of increased population, due to increased longevity of those who engage in physical activity… Human-powered transportation is therefore less an environmental issue and more an issue of public health… The interplay between longevity and environmental impact is a central feature of the conflicting societal objectives of improving human health and increasing environmental sustainability.”

There are limitations with a studies like this though. For example, we don’t know what average emissions per person will be in the future. It may be worse than today, or technological advances may reduce our impact in the decades to come.

Regardless of its limitations, it’s a fascinating example of second-order effects, and how a perceived improvement in one area may lead to worse effects in the long run.

Our world, our actions, and the consequences of those actions are often much more complex and nuanced than what seems apparent at first glance.

Each week, the European Space Agency publishes a series of images. It’s like a weekly photo diary focused on the cosmos. It’s awesome.

In March they published the highest resolution photo of the sun ever taken. They also included in the top right corner a scale image of the Earth—you’ll need to zoom in to see it.

I love how images like this evoke a unique sense of perspective within each viewer. Some may feel lonely. Others may be in awe. And many are likely to feel gratitude for our little floating orb of life.

I’m a big fan of regular doses of cosmic perspective.

Bees pollinate about 30% of total global food supply, but they’ve come under threat in recent decades.

“The overall abundance of pollinators is thought to have declined in the UK since the 1970s. For example, managed honeybee hives in England declined by 50% between 1985 and 2005,” reports the UK’s Royal Society of Biology.

Which is why I loved discovering and reading about Beewise. They’ve produced the world’s first robotic, solar-powered, commercial-scale beehives. The device houses 24 bee colonies, and allows beekeepers to remotely manage and treat their hives. This leads to increased bee health, improved honey yields, and improved pollination.

I’ve always enjoyed watching beehives—either at the museum behind the glass perspex, or when visiting friends who have had them—but it’s always felt like a time intensive, dangerous, and very manual activity.

So what I love about this product is that the solution feels so obviously good.

Here’s hoping its unit economics per bee hive mean that large agricultural businesses, as well as governments, can one day adopt it at scale for the pollination of crops and other natural environments.

A few days ago I published a post about writing with clarity.

The main point was, “Clarity in thought precedes clarity in writing, but clarity in writing cannot precede clarity in thought.”

In response to the post, I received a thoughtful message from Rohan that helped me identify a blind spot. I was over-indexing on 1) the finished product, and 2) recent pieces of writing I had seen in the workplace.

Rohan reminded me that “much of the act of writing is an exercise in getting to more clarity of thought,” and how there’s a reason why the word essay comes from the French word essayer, which means to try.

We don’t need to share the first words that we put on paper, nor do we need to keep them in our second, third, or fourth drafts. But we can—and should—use them to externalise what’s in our minds, and ultimately clarify our thinking.

Thanks Rohan! For this, and much more!

Most plans assume linear progress.

But meaningful progress is almost always non-linear.

Along the way, we learn something that changes our mind. We make mistakes that force us to reconsider our strategy. We grimace at the unexpected headwind, and often fail to give the tailwind enough credit.

If we anticipate non-linear progress, it’s a salve for the days when we inch forward, and a reminder to be humble on the days when progress comes easily.

I was listening to a podcast today where I learnt about ’Wembley Singles’. It’s a form of backyard football with a twist.

Firstly, it’s a free-for-all. There’s one goal, one goal keeper, and no teams. Everyone on the field plays for themselves.

When a player scores, they get to stand on the sideline. This continues until there is only 1 player who hasn’t scored a goal; that person gets knocked out. The whole process then repeats itself until there are only 2 players that haven’t been knocked out. At this point, the first out of these two to score a goal wins the game.

Apparently, Wembley Singles is a chaotic mess, and I’m not surprised. When everyone plays for themselves, the skill, craft, and level of play quickly reach a limit.

That’s why we have teams. In football, at work, with friends, and with our families. Life is smoother, more fun, and much more fulfilling, when we’re doing it with others.

There’s a rule of thumb in aviation that if your direction is off by 1 degree at the start of a journey, after 60 miles you’ll be 1 mile off course.

Tiny changes in trajectory add up to massive effects down the line.

Frequent pauses to think about what we want, and to course correct where necessary, is important for achieving the our long term objectives.

Clarity in thought precedes clarity in writing.

Clarity in writing cannot precede clarity in thought.

What’s on paper can only ever be as clear as what is first clear in the mind.

This is something I remind myself of often when the words just don’t feel right.

“A monument scale mechanical clock, built inside a mountain, designed to keep accurate time for the next ten millennia.”

That’s the description for The Clock of the Long Now. It’s a project by The Long Now Foundation, whose purpose is to inspire long term thinking.

A natural reaction to super-long-term projects like this is, “Why? There are so many urgent and important problems today. Why not spend money and resources on those instead?”

And that’s a fair comment.

But what I love about this project in particular is how it helps us—the ones who are alive now—connect with the future via a tangible touchpoint. It’s hard to picture what the world will look like in 100 years, let alone 10,000. So by imagining this clock, still ticking 5,000 years from now, in the depths of a mountain, suddenly we have a point of connection with the future. As we picture it ticking, we can ask what will people, the environment, and life be like then?

When long term to us feels like 5-10 years, a 10 millennia juxtaposition puts things into perspective.